Can Portugal Win the Nations League Without Cristiano Ronaldo?
Cristiano Ronaldo’s international retirement marks the end of an extraordinary era for Portuguese football. But while the departure of the national team’s most famous player is a major story, Portugal’s results suggest the transition may not be as difficult as some expected. With four wins from four group matches, a favourable run-in and a deep pool of attacking talent, the Selecção are firmly in the Nations League conversation.
That raises an intriguing question for supporters and bettors alike: is Portugal’s current price of 6.50 to win the tournament worth considering, or does Ronaldo’s absence make them too risky? The answer depends on how much weight is given to their strong group form—and how much uncertainty remains about their ability to deliver in the knockout rounds.
Ronaldo’s Portugal Legacy Comes to a Close
Ronaldo retires from international football with a record that may stand for generations. Across 234 appearances, the 41-year-old scored 146 goals and registered 10 international hat-tricks. Since making his Portugal debut in 2003, he became the team’s defining figure, serving as captain from 2008 and helping establish the country as a regular contender for major honours.
His trophy cabinet includes the 2016 European Championship and Nations League titles in 2019 and 2025. Those achievements made him much more than a prolific forward: he was the face of Portugal’s rise and a constant reference point for teammates, supporters and opponents.
The final stretch of his international career, however, was complicated. Portugal’s 2026 World Cup campaign ended against eventual champions Spain, and Ronaldo faced criticism over his performances. His scoring rate under Roberto Martínez was actually higher than it had been under Fernando Santos—0.756 goals per game compared with 0.624—but that did little to quiet debate over his role in the side.
Tension reportedly grew during the Nations League campaign. Ronaldo started against Wales, taking seven shots and producing 1.03 expected goals, but did not find the net. He was later named among the substitutes for the match against Norway, warmed up but did not come on, and was told he would not start against Denmark. After leaving the camp, he initially said he was not retiring. His subsequent announcement brought the long-running uncertainty to an end.
Portugal’s Results Offer Encouragement
Portugal have responded impressively on the pitch. They have won all four of their group matches and sit top with two fixtures remaining. That form makes them one of only two teams already assured of a place in the Nations League quarter-finals, while also giving new coach Jorge Jesus a strong platform to shape the team around its next generation.
The numbers point to a side capable of competing at both ends of the pitch. Portugal are averaging 2.3 goals per 90 minutes, the third-best attacking rate in the competition behind Spain and England. Their expected goals against figure of 4.6 is also among the tournament’s strongest, ranking joint-fourth. In other words, their progress has not depended solely on outscoring opponents; they have also shown defensive control.
Portugal’s remaining group games, against Denmark and Wales, look manageable on paper. If they maintain their current level, they could finish with a perfect record and 18 points. The schedule also compares favourably with that of several other leading contenders: England and Spain still have to meet, while France face a demanding trip to Milan to play Italy. Any dropped points among those rivals could further improve Portugal’s position in the outright race.
Who Can Replace Ronaldo’s Goals?
No single player can be expected to reproduce Ronaldo’s influence, but Portugal have several options to redistribute the scoring burden. Their squad depth is one of the strongest arguments for backing them despite the loss of their captain.
Gonçalo Ramos and João Félix have each scored three times in the Nations League and are likely to take on greater responsibility in the final third. Rafael Leão offers pace and one-on-one threat from wide areas, while Carlos Forbs has also attracted attention with his performances in European competition. Rather than asking one forward to become a direct Ronaldo replacement, Jesus can build a more varied attack around several contributors.
The coach’s 28-player squad also includes uncapped Alberto Costa and Gustavo Varela, signalling that Portugal are willing to look beyond established names. Varela’s reported nine goals in Serie A have put him on the radar, although adapting to international football is a different challenge from scoring regularly at club level. The competition for places could be an advantage, but integrating newcomers quickly will matter if Portugal reach the latter stages.
Nations League Prediction: Value, With a Knockout Caveat
Portugal are currently priced at 6.50 to win the Nations League, according to the quoted market. They remain behind Spain, France and England in the outright betting, a ranking that may reflect understandable caution about life without Ronaldo. Yet their group record, balanced statistics and favourable schedule make a case that the market could be underestimating them.
For bettors considering a prediction, Portugal’s route to the final may appeal as a more conservative option than backing them to lift the trophy. Reaching the final would still require strong performances against top opposition, but it avoids asking the team to prove immediately that it can win the entire competition without its most influential historical figure.
There are important reasons not to overstate the case. Four group matches provide a limited sample, and Portugal have not yet demonstrated how they will handle high-pressure knockout football without Ronaldo. His leadership, experience and ability to decide a match with one moment will be difficult to replace, even if the team’s overall play improves through a more collective approach.
For now, Portugal look like a credible contender rather than a guaranteed champion. Their performances suggest the transition is underway, and their squad has the talent to make a deep run. Whether that promise becomes a third Nations League title will depend on how effectively Jesus turns individual quality into a cohesive team when the stakes rise.
Betting note: Odds are subject to change. Compare current prices and consider the risks before placing a wager.
