Europa League Winner Prediction: Why Bayer Leverkusen Could Offer Better Value Than Benfica
Bayer Leverkusen and Benfica are joint favourites in the 2026/27 Europa League winner market, with both priced at 5.50. Yet the early league-phase numbers suggest the teams may not be as evenly matched as those odds imply. Leverkusen lead the competition for expected goals (xG), have created more shooting opportunities than any other side and have also been the toughest team to threaten.
That combination makes the German club an intriguing option for football bettors assessing the outright market. Benfica’s goalscoring record is impressive, while Bournemouth and AC Milan bring their own reasons for consideration. But with the tournament still developing, it is worth looking beyond the standings and examining the underlying performances before making a Europa League prediction.
2026/27 Europa League winner odds
Bayer Leverkusen: 5.50
Benfica: 5.50
Bournemouth: 7.00
AC Milan: 17.00
Odds were correct at the time of writing and are subject to change. Betting involves risk; compare current prices and gamble responsibly.
Bayer Leverkusen: The strongest underlying numbers
Leverkusen have made an emphatic start to the league phase, and their statistical profile is the clearest argument for backing them before their price potentially shortens. Across their first three matches, they have recorded 10.96 xG—the highest total in the competition and the only figure above 10. They have also registered a league-leading 72 shots, with 33 on target.
The striking detail is that Leverkusen have not fully converted that attacking pressure into goals. They have missed 12 of their 17 big chances, while their goals scored are 2.96 below their xG. That underperformance can be frustrating for supporters, but it may also point to room for improvement: if their finishing becomes more efficient, their results could become even more convincing.
Leverkusen’s strength is not limited to attack. They have conceded just 1.62 xG, the lowest total in the league phase so far, and have kept three clean sheets. Opponents have managed only eight shots on target against them. Those numbers suggest a side capable of controlling matches at both ends rather than relying on a single prolific scorer.
Possession and passing help explain that control. Leverkusen average 60% possession and have completed 1,705 of 1,887 passes, a success rate of 90.4%. They have also made 116 touches in opposition penalty areas, the fourth-highest figure in the tournament. The combination of patient circulation and frequent entries into dangerous areas gives them a repeatable route to creating chances.
There is a fair question mark over their recent record in major European knockout ties. Leverkusen lost successive Champions League round-of-16 matchups against Bayern and Arsenal in 2024/25 and 2025/26. However, the Europa League presents a different challenge, and the club reached the final in 2023/24. Their current performances make them a credible contender, although the knockout rounds will provide a much sterner test than the opening phase.
Benfica: Goals are flowing, but chance creation matters
Benfica’s joint-favourite status is supported by their results: they have scored 10 league-phase goals, more than any other team in the competition. Their domestic numbers also underline their attacking quality. In Portugal’s top flight, they average 2.7 goals per match, lead the league for possession at 63.3% and have produced 22.4 xG, just behind Porto’s 22.8.
However, their Europa League chance creation has been less dominant than Leverkusen’s. Benfica have fashioned nine big chances and missed four. Their goalscoring efficiency is a genuine strength, but a relatively modest supply of clear opportunities could become more significant against better-organised opponents in the later rounds. In knockout football, a team may not get enough openings to rely on clinical finishing alone.
Benfica also carry a long-standing piece of European folklore. The so-called Béla Guttmann curse refers to a story that the former manager predicted in 1962 that the club would not win another European trophy for a century. Benfica have since lost eight continental finals, including Europa League final defeats in 2013 and 2014. The story is not a performance statistic, of course, but it remains part of the club’s European narrative.
Managerial experience could nevertheless help. Marco Silva has spent years working in English football, including 229 matches in charge of Fulham, and has faced clubs such as Bournemouth, Sunderland and Crystal Palace. Familiarity with several potential opponents may prove useful if Benfica meet Premier League sides during the knockout rounds.
Bournemouth: Squad depth and a promising defence
Bournemouth are priced at 7.00 and represent a different kind of Europa League prediction. The Cherries are making their first European campaign, so their lack of experience at this level is an obvious concern. They have also begun the competition under a new manager: Andoni Iraola departed for Liverpool, with Marco Rose taking charge.
Their standing among the leading contenders reflects both their resources and their defensive work. Bournemouth’s squad is valued at approximately €745 million, the highest in the competition, with Crystal Palace next at around €670 million. A deep squad can matter over a demanding season, when Thursday-night European fixtures are followed by domestic matches and recovery time is limited.
On the pitch, Bournemouth have allowed only 1.85 xG, the second-lowest total in the league phase. They have faced just six shots on target across three matches. Those figures suggest opponents are finding it difficult to create clean looks, even if Bournemouth do not match Leverkusen’s attacking output. Rose’s challenge will be to maintain that defensive resilience while helping his side adapt to the pressure and tactical variety of European knockout football.
AC Milan: A high-priced outsider with pedigree
At 17.00, AC Milan are a longer-priced selection. Their European history makes them difficult to dismiss, and a 3-1 derby win over Inter offered a reminder of their potential. But their Europa League statistics are less persuasive than those of the leading favourites: Milan rank 17th for xG, 24th for big chances created and 27th for possession, averaging only 48%.
Those figures raise questions about how consistently Milan can control matches against strong opposition. Their domestic campaign may also influence their European priorities. If the Serie A title race moves beyond reach, the club could place greater emphasis on the Europa League; if it remains competitive, managing squad workload across both fronts may become more complicated.
Milan’s price may look attractive compared with shorter-priced rivals, particularly if their form improves. Still, their European pedigree should be balanced against the current evidence: they need to create more high-quality chances and show greater control before they can be considered a leading value pick.
Europa League prediction: Leverkusen stand out, but the market remains open
For now, Leverkusen offer the strongest statistical case among the outright favourites. Their league-leading 10.96 xG, high shot volume and competition-best defensive record point to a team performing well beyond a simple run of favourable results. Their missed chances also provide a plausible reason to expect further improvement, though no team is guaranteed to convert that potential in the knockout rounds.
Benfica remain a serious threat because of their scoring form and possession-based approach. Bournemouth have the resources and defensive platform to surprise, while Milan are an intriguing outsider if their underlying performance improves. A sensible football prediction should account for all four profiles—and remember that odds can change quickly as the league phase unfolds. Leverkusen currently look the most compelling value, but the route to lifting the trophy will depend on whether they can carry their strong process into the decisive matches.
