Alaves vs Atletico Madrid Prediction: Three La Liga Bets to Consider
Alaves welcome Atletico Madrid to Mendizorrotza on Saturday, 10 October, for a La Liga meeting that could become increasingly open as the match develops. The hosts have shown they can create chances on home soil, while Atletico arrive with attacking momentum after a run of high-scoring performances. That contrast makes this fixture an intriguing one for football fans and bettors alike.
Our Alaves vs Atletico Madrid prediction points to a measured opening period followed by a more entertaining second half. The visitors have recently been slow starters but dangerous after the break, and Spain international Alex Baena is one player capable of turning pressure into goals. The featured bets are a first-half draw, over 2.5 total goals and Baena to score at any time.
Alaves vs Atletico Madrid best bets
First-half result: Draw at odds of 2.30 on Stake
Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.80 on Stake
Alex Baena to score anytime at odds of 2.90 on Stake
Match prediction: Alaves 1-2 Atletico Madrid
Alaves have enough attacking quality to trouble Atletico, particularly in front of their home supporters. However, the visitors’ recent form and greater depth in decisive areas give them the edge. A competitive first half could give way to a more open contest, with Atletico eventually finding a winning goal.
Recent form: Alaves looking to recover, Atletico building momentum
Alaves made an encouraging start to the campaign, collecting 10 points from their first four matches. Their forward line has shared the responsibility, with Lucas Boye, Toni Martinez and Mariano Diaz all contributing. That spread of attacking options has helped Quique Sanchez Flores’ side avoid relying on a single scorer.
Their momentum has since slowed. Defeats to Racing Santander and Valencia were followed by a goalless draw in Bilbao, leaving Alaves with work to do if they are to re-establish their early-season rhythm. Even so, their home numbers remain a reason for optimism: they have averaged 2.25 goals per 90 minutes at Mendizorrotza this season, compared with 1.57 across all matches.
Atletico Madrid have taken the opposite path, gathering pace as the season has progressed. Diego Simeone’s team have won their last three La Liga games and scored nine goals during that spell. Their latest league victory was a 2-1 derby win over Real Madrid, with Alejandro Grimaldo and Jonathan David finding the net.
The result underlined Atletico’s ability to produce in high-pressure matches, while their recent scoring run suggests they are finding more fluency in attack. Their defensive structure is still adjusting to changes, however, and that could give Alaves opportunities even if the visitors control much of the match.
Why a first-half draw looks appealing
Atletico’s recent matches have tended to gather momentum after the interval. Three of their last four La Liga fixtures were goalless at half-time, and four of their last five matches across competitions were level after 45 minutes. That includes their Champions League trip to Liverpool. Although those games did not all finish level, they point to a team that often needs time to find its attacking rhythm.
Alaves have also been difficult to break down early at home. They are yet to concede a first-half goal in front of their own supporters this season, while half of their league matches in Vitoria have reached the interval at 0-0. The hosts may look to stay compact, frustrate Atletico’s midfield and avoid giving the visitors space to attack behind the defence.
Those trends make the first-half draw a worthwhile football prediction at 2.30. It is not a guarantee of a quiet match overall; rather, it reflects the possibility that both teams begin cautiously before the game opens up later.
Over 2.5 goals could land after the break
A cautious opening does not necessarily mean a low-scoring finish. Alaves have demonstrated real attacking potential at home, where their scoring average rises to 2.25 goals per 90 minutes. Boye has been particularly productive, scoring four times across four home appearances. If the hosts can supply him with service, Atletico’s unsettled defensive unit may be tested.
There are reasons to expect chances at the other end, too. Since Sanchez Flores took charge in March, Alaves have conceded in 74% of their league fixtures. Atletico’s recent results have also been goal-heavy: each of their last seven matches finished with more than 2.5 goals. Their forward line has been productive, and the visitors are likely to create opportunities even if Alaves defend well early on.
The over 2.5 goals selection is priced at 1.80, implying a probability of roughly 55.6%. A potential sequence of events supports the bet: a tight first half, followed by greater urgency from the team chasing the game and more space for both sides to attack. Alaves’ home threat and Atletico’s scoring form make three or more goals a realistic outcome.
Alex Baena to score: Atletico’s in-form threat
Alex Baena is a strong candidate to make a decisive contribution. The 25-year-old has become an important attacking option for Atletico and appears to be playing with confidence. After a difficult first campaign at the Metropolitano, he has responded with improved performances and four goals in seven league appearances this season.
His international form adds to the appeal. Baena made an impact for Spain during the break, recording a goal and two assists in fewer than 200 minutes. The winger’s ability to drift inside, operate behind the striker and strike cleanly from distance gives him several routes to a scoring chance. He is averaging 2.1 shots per game, with a reported conversion rate of 26.7%.
Baena can also be dangerous from set pieces, making him a threat even if Alaves limit Atletico’s open-play opportunities. At odds of 2.90, the anytime scorer selection offers an implied probability of approximately 34.5%. That price looks attractive given his recent form and his freedom to move into advanced positions.
Expected lineups and final prediction
Alaves predicted lineup: Sivera; Jonny, Valentini, Tenaglia, Rebbach; D. Suarez, Blanco, Ibanez, Perez; Boye, T. Martinez.
Atletico Madrid predicted lineup: Oblak; Hancko, Le Normand, Pubill; Lookman, Hjulmand, Llorente, Simeone; Baena, Kang-in; David.
Alaves should be competitive at home, and their attacking record suggests they can get on the scoresheet. Atletico, though, arrive in stronger overall form and have shown they can turn close games into victories. The most likely pattern is a balanced first half followed by a more open second period, with Baena among the players capable of making the difference.
Final prediction: Alaves 1-2 Atletico Madrid. The recommended bets are a first-half draw, over 2.5 goals and Alex Baena to score anytime. As with all football betting, odds and team news can change, so check the latest information before placing a wager.
